Leyton Orient 0–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

12/27/2022

League Two · Round 23Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient45%

×Draw28%

Stevenage27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.96

Leyton Orient

1.32

Stevenage

0.96

Leyton Orient creates 38% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 100 away

1.41

creates per match

0.80

1.13

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

73%

Leyton Orient or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

55%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

21%

Stevenage wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

73%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

38%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

15%

Stevenage 1+ goals

62%

Stevenage 2+ goals

25%

Stevenage 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

62%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

45%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

27%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

T. Ashby-Hammond

Stevenage · G

7.9

Match Events

21'

45'

50'

51'

63'

63'

R. Sotiriou← G. Moncur

80'

K. Smith← L. James-Wildin

81'

J. Taylor← D. Rose

81'

J. Reid← L. Norris

88'

C. Clay← P. Smyth

88'

R. Hunt← J. Brown

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonStevenage

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots12

6Corners3

14Fouls20

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target3

6Off Target4

1Blocked5

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

380Total Passes200

287Accurate Passes116

76%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2