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Leyton Orient vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
3/9/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 35The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient45%
×Draw28%
Stevenage27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.32
Stevenage
0.96

Leyton Orient creates 38% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 100 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
73%
Leyton Orient or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
55%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
21%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
73%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
38%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
15%
Stevenage 1+ goals
62%
Stevenage 2+ goals
25%
Stevenage 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
62%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
45%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
27%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
L. VigourouxLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · G
8.9

Match Events

52'
Jamie Turley
58'
Danny Newton
75'
J. Aitchison← E. List
76'
J. Dayton← N. Freeman
79'
James Brophy
79'
D. Johnson← T. Abrahams
86'
M. Stevens← L. Norris
86'
R. Hutton← E. Osborne
90'
Ben Coker

Possession

60%Leyton

Shots

6Leyton

Pass accuracy

53%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonStevenage
Overview
60%Possession40%
6Total Shots16
3Corners5
14Fouls6
Shots
6Total Shots16
0On Target8
4Off Target4
2Blocked4
3Inside Box10
3Outside Box6
Passing
60%Possession40%
539Total Passes343
436Accurate Passes245
81%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
8Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls6
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Stevenage

Leyton Orient and Stevenage drew 0-0 in League Two on March 9, 2021.

Leyton Orient controlled possession (60%) and registered 6 shots to 16.

The match was played at The Breyer Group Stadium in London.