Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leyton Orient vs Oxford United — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
Preview
15:00
Oxford United
Oxford United
1/1/2027League OneLeague One · Round 23Brisbane Road
Big match
38%
Leyton Orient
model favours
38%26%35%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Leyton Orient38%
×Draw26%
Oxford United35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.34
Oxford United
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 135 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.30
Oxford United
1.36

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.18
Oxford United
1.39

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
65%
Leyton Orient or Oxford United
74%
Draw or Oxford United
62%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
17%
Oxford United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
74%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
39%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
15%
Oxford United 1+ goals
72%
Oxford United 2+ goals
36%
Oxford United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
52%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.30 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Leyton Orient defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
38%
level
26%
Oxford United scores more
35%

Leyton Orient at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Leyton Orient
Balanced
Oxford United
Balanced
53%Possession50%
71%Pass accuracy74%
11.3ShotsBiggest gap12.0
1.12xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Leyton OrientOxford United

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Leyton Orient
1
Draws
2
Oxford United
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 60%
2–12–30–51–02–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orient
LLWWD
United
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leyton Orient host Oxford United

January 1, 2027: Leyton Orient take on Oxford United in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leyton Orient host Oxford United at Brisbane Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.