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Leyton Orient vs Mansfield Town — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
Preview
18:45
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
4/13/2027League OneLeague One · Round 41Brisbane Road
Big match
38%
Leyton Orient
model favours
38%28%34%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Leyton Orient38%
×Draw28%
Mansfield Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.23
Mansfield Town
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.18
Mansfield Town
0.98

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.31
Mansfield Town
1.28

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.01on par
Mansfield Town+0.11scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
66%
Leyton Orient or Mansfield Town
72%
Draw or Mansfield Town
62%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
16%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
71%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
35%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
13%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
68%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
32%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
53%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.18 + Mansfield Town defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mansfield Town attack 0.98 + Leyton Orient defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
38%
level
28%
Mansfield Town scores more
34%

Leyton Orient at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches
  • Leyton Orient sit 20, Mansfield Town 10 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Leyton Orient
Balanced
Mansfield Town
Balanced
53%Possession48%
71%Pass accuracy71%
11.3Shots11.7
1.12xGBiggest gap1.37
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Leyton OrientMansfield Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Leyton Orient
3
Draws
2
Mansfield Town
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 40%
0–01–43–23–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orient
LLWWD
Town
LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leyton Orient host Mansfield Town

April 13, 2027: Leyton Orient take on Mansfield Town in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leyton Orient host Mansfield Town at Brisbane Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.