Leyton Orient 1–0 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mansfield Town

C. Kelman 63'

8/13/2022

League Two · Round 3Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient39%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.19

Leyton Orient

1.28

Mansfield Town

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 141 away

1.41

creates per match

1.25

1.13

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

66%

Leyton Orient or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

61%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

17%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

72%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

37%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

14%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

70%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

33%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

53%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

39%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

34%

Leyton Orient at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Vigouroux

Leyton Orient · G

8.9

Match Events

23'

John-Joe O'Toole

27'

Rob Hunt

45'

G. Lapslie← H. Boateng

63'

C. Kelman↳ I. El Mizouni

64'

O. Clarke← S. Quinn

64'

G. Maris← A. Hartigan

66'

Idris El Mizouni

73'

J. Brown← P. Smyth

77'

R. Sotiriou← G. Moncur

78'

Jordan Brown

83'

H. Smith← C. Kelman

84'

A. Thompson← T. James

85'

J. Gale← W. Swan

86'

J. Perch← K. Gordon

90+5'

Theodore Archibald

90+4'

Stephen McLaughlin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonMansfield

Overview

58%Possession42%

6Total Shots15

4Corners9

10Fouls7

Shots

6Total Shots15

3On Target6

1Off Target7

2Blocked2

5Inside Box12

1Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

392Total Passes276

297Accurate Passes190

76%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls7

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

League Two: Leyton Orient 1–0 Mansfield Town

Leyton Orient beat Mansfield Town 1-0 in League Two on August 13, 2022.

Goals: C. Kelman (63').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (58%) and registered 6 shots to 15.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.

Leyton Orient vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Leyton Orient 1–0 Mansfield Town