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Leyton Orient vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
M. Benning 74' (OG)
J. Dayton 45'
K. Watts 60'
2/11/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 33The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient39%
×Draw27%
Mansfield Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.28
Mansfield Town
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 141 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Mansfield Town
1.25

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Mansfield Town
1.16

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
66%
Leyton Orient or Mansfield Town
73%
Draw or Mansfield Town
61%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
17%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
72%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
37%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
14%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
70%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
33%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
53%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
39%
level
27%
Mansfield Town scores more
34%

Leyton Orient at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. DaytonLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · M
7.6

Match Events

45'
J. Dayton↳ L. Angol
46'
J. Clarke← J. Riley
60'
K. Watts↳ M. Benning
64'
Ryan Sweeney
66'
J. Wright← J. Dayton
67'
George Marsh
70'
J. Maguire-Drew← D. Johnson
74'
M. BenningOwn goal
82'
James Brophy
88'
H. Charsley← M. Benning

Possession

65%Leyton

Shots

14Leyton

Pass accuracy

58%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonMansfield
Overview
65%Possession35%
14Total Shots9
5Corners5
15Fouls19
Shots
14Total Shots9
3On Target5
7Off Target4
4Blocked0
8Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
487Total Passes248
344Accurate Passes127
71%Pass Accuracy51%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls19
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

League Two: Leyton Orient 2–1 Mansfield Town

Leyton Orient beat Mansfield Town 2-1 in League Two on February 11, 2020.

Goals: J. Dayton (45'), K. Watts (60'), M. Benning (74' o.g.).

Leyton Orient controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Breyer Group Stadium in London.