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Leyton Orient vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Grimsby
Grimsby
J. Maguire-Drew 74'
C. Wilkinson 5'
M. Gibson 90+1' (pen)
G. Williams 32'
L. Waterfall 22'
10/17/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 6The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient43%
×Draw27%
Grimsby31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.40
Grimsby
1.14

Leyton Orient creates 23% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 138 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Grimsby
1.15

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Grimsby
1.38

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
69%
Leyton Orient or Grimsby
73%
Draw or Grimsby
57%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
20%
Grimsby wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
75%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
41%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
17%
Grimsby 1+ goals
68%
Grimsby 2+ goals
32%
Grimsby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
58%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
43%
level
27%
Grimsby scores more
31%

Leyton Orient at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
G. WilliamsGrimsbyGrimsby · M
8.5

Match Events

5'
C. Wilkinson↳ R. Sotiriou
22'
L. Waterfall↳ G. Williams
32'
G. Williams↳ O. Windsor
39'
Josh Wright
46'
J. Morton← D. Rose
62'
J. Maguire-Drew← C. Wilkinson
62'
O. Edwards← M. Green
66'
J. McAnuff← J. Turley
69'
M. Gibson← G. Williams
74'
J. Maguire-Drew↳ D. Happe
75'
Jordan Maguire-Drew
86'
Harry Clifton
90'
Jobi McAnuff
90'
Craig Clay
90+1'
M. GibsonPenalty

Possession

59%Leyton

Shots

8Leyton

Pass accuracy

53%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonGrimsby
Overview
59%Possession41%
8Total Shots9
4Corners6
14Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots9
3On Target5
2Off Target4
3Blocked0
6Inside Box8
2Outside Box1
Passing
59%Possession41%
513Total Passes341
404Accurate Passes237
79%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

League Two: Leyton Orient 2–3 Grimsby

Grimsby beat Leyton Orient 3-2 in League Two on October 17, 2020.

Goals: C. Wilkinson (5'), L. Waterfall (22'), G. Williams (32'), J. Maguire-Drew (74'), M. Gibson (90+1' pen).

Leyton Orient controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Breyer Group Stadium in London.