Leyton Orient 1–1 Grimsby: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Grimsby

L. Angol 90+2' (pen)

B. Clarke 74'

1/11/2020

League Two · Round 27The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient43%

×Draw27%

Grimsby31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

Leyton Orient

1.40

Grimsby

1.14

Leyton Orient creates 23% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 138 away

1.41

creates per match

1.15

1.13

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Grimsby

1.15

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Grimsby

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

69%

Leyton Orient or Grimsby

73%

Draw or Grimsby

57%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

20%

Grimsby wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

41%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

17%

Grimsby 1+ goals

68%

Grimsby 2+ goals

32%

Grimsby 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

58%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

43%

level

27%

Grimsby scores more

31%

Leyton Orient at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Maguire-Drew

Leyton Orient · M

7.4

Match Events

14'

25'

30'

51'

60'

62'

65'

C. Clay← H. Kyprianou

74'

B. Clarke↳ E. Whitehouse

81'

83'

83'

87'

90'

90+2'

L. AngolPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonGrimsby

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots12

10Corners6

11Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots12

3On Target2

9Off Target5

4Blocked5

11Inside Box9

5Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

353Total Passes288

237Accurate Passes168

67%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1