Grimsby 0–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Grimsby

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leyton Orient

D. Happe 20'

3/2/2021

League Two · Round 33Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Grimsby36%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.25

Grimsby

1.22

Leyton Orient

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 141 home / 94 away

1.24

creates per match

1.17

1.34

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Grimsby

1.24

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Grimsby

1.34

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

63%

Grimsby or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

64%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

15%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

70%

Grimsby 2+ goals

34%

Grimsby 3+ goals

12%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

71%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

36%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

49%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 141 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.24 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Grimsby defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Grimsby scores more

36%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

37%

Leyton Orient at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

D. Kemp

Leyton Orient · F

7.6

Match Events

5'

D. Happe← A. Thompson

20'

D. Happe↳ D. Kemp

66'

L. John-Lewis← S. Payne

66'

J. Hanson← D. Rose

73'

J. Lamy← J. Adams

78'

H. Kyprianou← C. Clay

86'

T. Abrahams← D. Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyLeyton

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots11

4Corners6

13Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots11

1On Target2

7Off Target5

1Blocked4

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

421Total Passes377

259Accurate Passes208

62%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Offsides2