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Leyton Orient vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
C. Kelman 77'
G. Moncur 51' (pen)
4/22/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 44Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient43%
×Draw26%
Crewe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.40
Crewe
1.15

Leyton Orient creates 22% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 122 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Crewe
1.16

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Crewe
1.38

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
69%
Leyton Orient or Crewe
74%
Draw or Crewe
57%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
20%
Crewe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
75%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
41%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
17%
Crewe 1+ goals
68%
Crewe 2+ goals
32%
Crewe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
58%
Crewe (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Crewe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Crewe attack 1.16 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
43%
level
26%
Crewe scores more
31%

Leyton Orient at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
G. MoncurLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · M
7.6

Match Events

27'
Idris El Mizouni
51'
G. MoncurPenalty
56'
J. Brown← I. El Mizouni
57'
R. Griffiths← R. Finnigan
57'
C. Ainley← J. Tabiner
58'
Conor Thomas
67'
C. Kelman← K. Sadlier
77'
C. Kelman
78'
E. Nevitt← C. Baker-Richardson
79'
T. James← J. Sweeney
79'
A. Drinan← P. Smyth
80'
Regan Griffiths
87'
L. Brook← C. Long

Possession

61%Leyton

Shots

13Leyton

Pass accuracy

55%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonCrewe
Overview
61%Possession39%
13Total Shots4
6Corners8
14Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots4
7On Target2
2Off Target1
4Blocked1
5Inside Box4
8Outside Box0
Passing
61%Possession39%
501Total Passes312
408Accurate Passes207
81%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Crewe

Leyton Orient beat Crewe 2-0 in League Two on April 22, 2023.

Goals: G. Moncur (51' pen), C. Kelman (77').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.