Leyton Orient 1–2 Crewe: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Crewe

J. Maguire-Drew 42'

J. Jones 90'

E. Nolan 32'

9/17/2019

League Two · Round 9The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient43%

×Draw26%

Crewe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.15

Leyton Orient

1.40

Crewe

1.15

Leyton Orient creates 22% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 122 away

1.41

creates per match

1.16

1.13

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Crewe

1.16

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Crewe

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

69%

Leyton Orient or Crewe

74%

Draw or Crewe

57%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

20%

Crewe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

41%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

17%

Crewe 1+ goals

68%

Crewe 2+ goals

32%

Crewe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

58%

Crewe (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Crewe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Crewe attack 1.16 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

43%

level

26%

Crewe scores more

31%

Leyton Orient at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

P. Ng

Crewe · D

7.9

Match Events

19'

C. Wilkinson← L. Angol

32'

E. Nolan↳ D. Powell

42'

J. Maguire-Drew

54'

O. Dale← C. Kirk

60'

C. Ainley← D. Powell

66'

Louis Dennis

75'

C. Clay← D. Gorman

77'

M. Harrold← L. Dennis

90'

George Marsh

90+2'

C. Anene← C. Porter

90'

J. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonCrewe

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots9

4Corners8

12Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots9

5On Target4

5Off Target4

4Blocked1

7Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

406Total Passes409

289Accurate Passes276

71%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides3