Crewe 0–2 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Crewe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leyton Orient

T. Archibald 58'

E. Turns 31'

2/7/2023

League Two · Round 21Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Crewe42%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Crewe

1.38

Leyton Orient

1.17

Crewe creates 18% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 94 away

1.56

creates per match

1.17

1.18

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Crewe

1.56

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Crewe

1.18

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

68%

Crewe or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

58%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

19%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

75%

Crewe 2+ goals

40%

Crewe 3+ goals

16%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

69%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

33%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

57%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.56 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Crewe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crewe scores more

42%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

32%

Crewe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

43

E. Turns

Leyton Orient · D

7.6

Match Events

31'

E. Turns↳ C. Kelman

45+2'

B. Sambou← D. Amoo

58'

T. Archibald↳ K. Sadlier

67'

L. Brook← C. Colkett

69'

A. Drinan← C. Kelman

73'

D. Pratley← G. Moncur

84'

C. Ainley← R. Adebisi

84'

R. Sotiriou← K. Sadlier

90+2'

Elliott Nevitt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweLeyton

Overview

43%Possession57%

5Total Shots12

4Corners8

12Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots12

1On Target3

1Off Target6

3Blocked3

2Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

341Total Passes460

205Accurate Passes344

60%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides2