Leyton Orient 2–2 Colchester: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Colchester

R. Sotiriou 68'

G. Moncur 33' (pen)

N. Chilvers 90+2'

C. Hall 89'

3/18/2023

League Two · Round 37Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient44%

×Draw27%

Colchester28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.04

Leyton Orient

1.37

Colchester

1.04

Leyton Orient creates 32% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 159 away

1.41

creates per match

0.96

1.13

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

72%

Leyton Orient or Colchester

73%

Draw or Colchester

56%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

21%

Colchester wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

40%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

16%

Colchester 1+ goals

65%

Colchester 2+ goals

28%

Colchester 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

61%

Colchester (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Colchester attack 0.96 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

44%

level

27%

Colchester scores more

28%

Leyton Orient at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

N. Chilvers

Colchester · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

Tom Hopper

32'

Junior Tchamadeu

33'

G. MoncurPenalty

46'

W. Greenidge← F. Kelleher

50'

Ed Turns

62'

J. Fevrier← A. Kazeem

68'

M. Jay← A. Newby

68'

R. Sotiriou

71'

A. Thompson← P. Smyth

75'

K. Sadlier← G. Moncur

76'

C. Clay← I. El Mizouni

76'

J. Akinde← T. Hopper

76'

F. Sears← S. Tovide

79'

Lawrence Vigouroux

80'

C. Kelman← R. Sotiriou

89'

C. Hall↳ M. Jay

90+5'

Aaron Drinan

90+2'

N. Chilvers

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonColchester

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots12

1Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target6

7Off Target2

1Blocked4

9Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

375Total Passes286

263Accurate Passes171

70%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides5

League Two: Leyton Orient 2–2 Colchester

Leyton Orient and Colchester drew 2-2 in League Two on March 18, 2023.

Goals: G. Moncur (33' pen), R. Sotiriou (68'), C. Hall (89'), N. Chilvers (90+2').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.

Leyton Orient vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Leyton Orient 2–2 Colchester