Colchester 2–2 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

O. Edwards 79'

M. Kenlock 75'

E. Coleman 90+3'

R. Sotiriou 66'

3/1/2022

League Two · Round 23JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Colchester39%

×Draw28%

Leyton Orient33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.14

Colchester

1.26

Leyton Orient

1.14

Colchester creates 11% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 94 away

1.32

creates per match

1.17

1.10

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

67%

Colchester or Leyton Orient

72%

Draw or Leyton Orient

61%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

17%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

72%

Colchester 2+ goals

36%

Colchester 3+ goals

13%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

68%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

32%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

54%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more

39%

level

28%

Leyton Orient scores more

33%

Colchester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

E. Coleman

Leyton Orient · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

Ruel Sotiriou

23'

E. Huws← C. Skuse

36'

Alan Judge

41'

Matt Young

56'

H. Kyprianou← O. Khan

66'

R. Sotiriou↳ E. Coleman

68'

J. Akinde← L. Hannant

68'

P. Smyth← M. Young

75'

M. Kenlock↳ A. Judge

78'

Harry Smith

79'

O. Edwards↳ J. Akinde

87'

J. Tchamadeu← O. Edwards

89'

J. Tanga← A. Thompson

90+6'

Freddie Sears

90+2'

Paul Smyth

90+3'

E. Coleman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterLeyton

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots6

10Corners2

13Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots6

8On Target2

5Off Target4

7Blocked0

13Inside Box4

7Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

375Total Passes313

261Accurate Passes188

70%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1