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Leyton Orient vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Colchester
Colchester
F. Sears 4'
2/5/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 30The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient44%
×Draw27%
Colchester28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.37
Colchester
1.04

Leyton Orient creates 32% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 159 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Colchester
0.96

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Colchester
1.33

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
72%
Leyton Orient or Colchester
73%
Draw or Colchester
56%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
21%
Colchester wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
75%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
40%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
16%
Colchester 1+ goals
65%
Colchester 2+ goals
28%
Colchester 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
61%
Colchester (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Colchester attack 0.96 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
44%
level
27%
Colchester scores more
28%

Leyton Orient at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
F. SearsColchesterColchester · M
8.0

Match Events

4'
F. Sears↳ C. Andrews
40'
Freddie Sears
44'
H. Kyprianou← J. Brown
44'
G. Kennedy← C. Skuse
49'
Daniel Moss
63'
M. Welch-Hayes← T. Wright
79'
R. Sotiriou← H. Smith
80'
O. Edwards← C. Andrews
83'
Miles Welch-Hayes
90+6'
Matt Young
90+5'
Gene Kennedy

Possession

59%Leyton

Shots

5Leyton

Pass accuracy

55%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonColchester
Overview
59%Possession41%
5Total Shots10
7Corners6
14Fouls13
Shots
5Total Shots10
4On Target4
1Off Target2
0Blocked4
4Inside Box7
1Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
418Total Passes280
285Accurate Passes154
68%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

League Two: Leyton Orient 0–1 Colchester

Colchester beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in League Two on February 5, 2022.

Goals: F. Sears (4').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (59%) and registered 5 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Breyer Group Stadium in London.