Leyton Orient 1–3 Colchester: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Colchester

R. Sotiriou 86'

T. Robinson 90+1', 41'

H. Pell 64'

12/26/2019

League Two · Round 23The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient44%

×Draw27%

Colchester28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.04

Leyton Orient

1.37

Colchester

1.04

Leyton Orient creates 32% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 159 away

1.41

creates per match

0.96

1.13

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

72%

Leyton Orient or Colchester

73%

Draw or Colchester

56%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

21%

Colchester wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

40%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

16%

Colchester 1+ goals

65%

Colchester 2+ goals

28%

Colchester 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

61%

Colchester (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Colchester attack 0.96 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

44%

level

27%

Colchester scores more

28%

Leyton Orient at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

T. Robinson

Colchester · F

8.4

Match Events

21'

Callum Harriott

28'

Craig Clay

39'

Josh Wright

41'

T. Robinson↳ R. Jackson

60'

M. Harrold← J. Dayton

62'

Jordan Maguire-Drew

64'

H. Pell

67'

Omar Sowunmi

73'

R. Sotiriou← D. Happe

73'

F. Nouble← K. Poku

78'

T. Lapslie← L. Gambin

84'

C. Senior← C. Harriott

86'

R. Sotiriou

90+1'

T. Robinson↳ C. Senior

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonColchester

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots20

10Corners8

10Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots20

2On Target7

8Off Target8

2Blocked5

10Inside Box15

2Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

348Total Passes319

221Accurate Passes196

64%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2