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Levanger vs Aalesund — 1. Division 2018

Levanger
Levanger
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Aalesund
Aalesund
6/16/20241. Division1. Division · Round 13TOBB ARENA Levanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Levanger30%
×Draw23%
Aalesund46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levanger
1.36
Aalesund
1.74

Aalesund creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Levanger
1.40
Aalesund
1.60

allows per match

Levanger
1.87
Aalesund
1.32

finishing

Levanger+0.00on par
Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levanger ↓

Aalesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Levanger or draw
54%
Levanger or Aalesund
77%
Draw or Aalesund
70%

Winning margin

Levanger wins by 2+
13%
Aalesund wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Levanger 1+ goals
74%
Levanger 2+ goals
39%
Levanger 3+ goals
16%
Aalesund 1+ goals
82%
Aalesund 2+ goals
52%
Aalesund 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Levanger (draw refunded)
39%
Aalesund (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levanger at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.32 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levanger attack 1.40 + Aalesund defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Aalesund attack 1.60 + Levanger defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Levanger scores more
30%
level
23%
Aalesund scores more
46%

Aalesund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levanger vs Aalesund

Levanger beat Aalesund 4-0 in 1. Division on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at TOBB ARENA Levanger in Levanger.