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Aalesund vs Levanger — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Aalesund
Aalesund
CANC
13:00
Levanger
Levanger
2/2/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aalesund40%
×Draw24%
Levanger36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund
1.60
Levanger
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aalesund
1.80
Levanger
2.00

allows per match

Aalesund
1.00
Levanger
1.40

finishing

Aalesund+0.00on par
Levanger+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Levanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw
64%
Aalesund or Levanger
76%
Draw or Levanger
60%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+
20%
Levanger wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals
80%
Aalesund 2+ goals
47%
Aalesund 3+ goals
22%
Levanger 1+ goals
78%
Levanger 2+ goals
44%
Levanger 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)
53%
Levanger (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Levanger away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.80 + Levanger defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Levanger attack 2.00 + Aalesund defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aalesund scores more
40%
level
24%
Levanger scores more
36%

Aalesund at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Aalesund host Levanger

February 2, 2024: Aalesund take on Levanger in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Aalesund host Levanger at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.