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Aalesund vs Levanger — 1. Division 2018

Aalesund
Aalesund
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Levanger
Levanger
11/4/20181. Division1. Division · Round 29Color Line Stadion (Ålesund)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Aalesund61%
×Draw20%
Levanger19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund
2.25
Levanger
1.17

Aalesund creates 92% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 30 away

creates per match

Aalesund
2.31
Levanger
1.23

allows per match

Aalesund
1.10
Levanger
2.20

finishing

Aalesund+0.00on par
Levanger+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Levanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw
81%
Aalesund or Levanger
80%
Draw or Levanger
39%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+
39%
Levanger wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals
89%
Aalesund 2+ goals
65%
Aalesund 3+ goals
39%
Levanger 1+ goals
69%
Levanger 2+ goals
33%
Levanger 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)
76%
Levanger (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.10 · 77 matches

Levanger away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 2.31 + Levanger defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.25

Levanger attack 1.23 + Aalesund defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Aalesund scores more
61%
level
20%
Levanger scores more
19%

Aalesund at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Aalesund 4–0 Levanger

Aalesund beat Levanger 4-0 in 1. Division on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion (Ålesund).