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Levadiakos vs Panserraikos — Super League 1 2018

Levadiakos
Levadiakos
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Panserraikos
Panserraikos
F. Pedrozo 72' (pen)
B. Verbic 59'
A. Ozbolt 54', 8'
M. Tsaousis 45' (OG)
A. Maras 88'
C. Nunnely 13'
11/9/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 10Levadia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Levadiakos47%
×Draw24%
Panserraikos30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levadiakos
1.69
Panserraikos
1.30

Levadiakos creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Levadiakos
2.06
Panserraikos
0.71

allows per match

Levadiakos
1.89
Panserraikos
1.31

finishing

Levadiakos-0.23scores less
Panserraikos+0.42scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

Panserraikos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw
70%
Levadiakos or Panserraikos
76%
Draw or Panserraikos
53%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+
25%
Panserraikos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals
82%
Levadiakos 2+ goals
50%
Levadiakos 3+ goals
24%
Panserraikos 1+ goals
73%
Panserraikos 2+ goals
37%
Panserraikos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)
61%
Panserraikos (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Panserraikos away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.31 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 2.06 + Panserraikos defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.69

Panserraikos attack 0.71 + Levadiakos defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Levadiakos scores more
47%
level
24%
Panserraikos scores more
30%

Levadiakos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Levadiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
A. OzboltPanserraikosPanserraikos
9.3

Match Events

8'
A. Ozbolt↳ T. Tsapras
10'
Ché Nunnely
13'
C. Nunnely
16'
Vernon De Marco
45'
M. TsaousisOwn goal
46'
Andrei Ivan
46'
P. Symelidis← G. Balzi
54'
A. Ozbolt↳ S. Palacios
59'
B. Verbic↳ A. Ozbolt
63'
G. Doiranlis← A. Liasos
63'
Z. Banjaqui← A. Ivan
63'
N. Karelis← E. Brooks
63'
F. Pedrozo← A. Ozbolt
64'
H. Layous← B. Verbic
70'
M. Wague← C. Nunnely
71'
Francisco Tinaglini
72'
F. PedrozoPenalty
76'
K. Goumas← I. Kosti
81'
M. Guillaumier← S. Omeonga
83'
Konstantinos Goumas
86'
T. Filon← P. Vichos
88'
A. Maras↳ L. Lyratzis

Possession

66%Levadiakos

Shots

17Levadiakos

Pass accuracy

55%Levadiakos

Statistics

LevadiakosPanserraikos
Overview
66%Possession34%
17Total Shots8
6Corners4
6Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots8
9On Target2
5Off Target2
3Blocked4
12Inside Box4
5Outside Box4
Passing
66%Possession34%
599Total Passes304
526Accurate Passes221
88%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls11
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Levadiakos vs Panserraikos

Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 5-2 in Super League 1 on November 9, 2025.

Goals: A. Ozbolt (8', 54'), C. Nunnely (13'), M. Tsaousis (45' o.g.), B. Verbic (59'), F. Pedrozo (72' pen), A. Maras (88').

Levadiakos controlled possession (66%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Levadia Stadium in Levadia.