Levadiakos 3–0 Panserraikos: Result & Stats

Levadiakos

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Panserraikos

Zine 81' (pen)

P. Liagas 44'

A. Ožbolt 28'

4/5/2025

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 2Stadio Levadias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Levadiakos47%

×Draw24%

Panserraikos30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevadiakosExpected goals in this matchPanserraikos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.30

Levadiakos

1.69

Panserraikos

1.30

Levadiakos creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.06

creates per match

0.71

1.89

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Levadiakos

2.06

Panserraikos

0.71

allows per match

Levadiakos

1.89

Panserraikos

1.31

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

Levadiakos-0.23scores less

Panserraikos+0.42scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

Panserraikos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw

70%

Levadiakos or Panserraikos

76%

Draw or Panserraikos

53%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+

25%

Panserraikos wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals

82%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

50%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

24%

Panserraikos 1+ goals

73%

Panserraikos 2+ goals

37%

Panserraikos 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

61%

Panserraikos (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Panserraikos away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.31 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 2.06 + Panserraikos defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.69

Panserraikos attack 0.71 + Levadiakos defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Levadiakos scores more

47%

level

24%

Panserraikos scores more

30%

Levadiakos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Levadiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

P. Liagas

Levadiakos · D

8.0

Match Events

3'

Stavros Petavrakis

13'

Stephane Omeonga

15'

Triantafyllos Tsapras

28'

A. Ožbolt

34'

Gabriel Pires

44'

P. Liagas↳ G. Gianniotas

45+1'

Luka Gugeshashvili

59'

M. Sofianos← S. Oméonga

60'

M. Deletić← Z. Chatzistravos

62'

L. Jallow← G. Balzi

63'

P. Kassos← G. Gianniotas

63'

B. Verbič← T. Tsapras

68'

B. Galván← J. Salazar

68'

J. Gélin← P. Staikos

75'

R. Erramuspe← M. Moreira

79'

Volnei Feltes

81'

A. Avraham← Zine

81'

A. Karamanolis← S. Petavrakis

81'

ZinePenalty

90+5'

Jefté Betancor

90'

Marios Sofianos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LevadiakosPanserraikos

Overview

57%Possession43%

21Total Shots6

3Corners5

12Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots6

11On Target0

6Off Target4

4Blocked2

14Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

574Total Passes421

486Accurate Passes342

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards7

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Levadiakos vs Panserraikos

Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 3-0 in Super League 1 on April 5, 2025.

Goals: A. Ožbolt (28'), P. Liagas (44'), Zine (81' pen).

Levadiakos controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Levadias in Levadia.

Levadiakos vs Panserraikos — Super League 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Levadiakos vs Panserraikos