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Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC — Super League 1 2018

Levadiakos
Levadiakos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
A. Koita 69'
9/14/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 3Levadia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Levadiakos35%
×Draw23%
AEK Athens FC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levadiakos
1.53
AEK Athens FC
1.70

AEK Athens FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Levadiakos
2.20
AEK Athens FC
1.51

allows per match

Levadiakos
1.89
AEK Athens FC
0.85

finishing

Levadiakos-0.20scores less
AEK Athens FC-0.18scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levadiakos ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Levadiakos or draw
58%
Levadiakos or AEK Athens FC
77%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
65%

Winning margin

Levadiakos wins by 2+
17%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Levadiakos 1+ goals
78%
Levadiakos 2+ goals
45%
Levadiakos 3+ goals
20%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
82%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
51%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Levadiakos (draw refunded)
45%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levadiakos at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.85 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levadiakos attack 2.20 + AEK Athens FC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.53

AEK Athens FC attack 1.51 + Levadiakos defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Levadiakos scores more
35%
level
23%
AEK Athens FC scores more
42%

AEK Athens FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Y. LodyginLevadiakosLevadiakos · G
8.6

Match Events

54'
Dereck Kutesa
58'
B. Verbic← H. Layous
63'
A. Koita← R. Marin
63'
Zini← D. Kutesa
65'
Giannis Kosti
69'
A. Koita↳ N. Eliasson
74'
G. Balzi← A. Tshibola
74'
R. Ljubicic← P. Mantalos
81'
M. Grujic← L. Jovic
81'
D. Kaloskamis← N. Eliasson
83'
Robert Ljubičić
86'
Benjamin Verbič
88'
F. Pedrozo← S. Palacios

Possession

53%Levadiakos

Shots

13Levadiakos

Pass accuracy

50%Levadiakos

Statistics

LevadiakosAEK
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots19
2Corners8
9Fouls20
Shots
13Total Shots19
4On Target6
7Off Target7
2Blocked6
6Inside Box12
7Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
462Total Passes411
395Accurate Passes347
85%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls20
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC beat Levadiakos 1-0 in Super League 1 on September 14, 2025.

Goals: A. Koita (69').

Levadiakos controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at Levadia Stadium in Levadia.