AEK Athens FC 4–0 Levadiakos: Result & Stats

AEK Athens FC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Levadiakos

R. Marin 68'

P. Mantalos 59'

L. Jovic 49'

H. Moukoudi 5'

2/22/2026

Super League 1 · Round 22Allwyn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

AEK Athens FC61%

×Draw23%

Levadiakos16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AEK Athens FCExpected goals in this matchLevadiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.76

AEK Athens FC

1.74

Levadiakos

0.76

AEK Athens FC creates 129% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.02

creates per match

0.90

0.61

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

AEK Athens FC

2.02

Levadiakos

0.90

allows per match

AEK Athens FC

0.61

Levadiakos

1.46

+0.58scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

AEK Athens FC+0.58scores more

Levadiakos-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Athens FC ↓

Levadiakos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AEK Athens FC or draw

84%

AEK Athens FC or Levadiakos

77%

Draw or Levadiakos

39%

Winning margin

AEK Athens FC wins by 2+

35%

Levadiakos wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

AEK Athens FC 1+ goals

82%

AEK Athens FC 2+ goals

52%

AEK Athens FC 3+ goals

25%

Levadiakos 1+ goals

53%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

18%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)

79%

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Athens FC at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.61 · 5 matches

Levadiakos away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Athens FC attack 2.02 + Levadiakos defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.74

Levadiakos attack 0.90 + AEK Athens FC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AEK Athens FC scores more

61%

level

23%

Levadiakos scores more

16%

AEK Athens FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

P. Mantalos

AEK Athens FC · M

8.9

Match Events

5'

H. Moukoudi↳ R. Marin

13'

15'

38'

42'

46'

G. Nikas← J. Abu Hanna

49'

L. Jovic↳ P. Mantalos

59'

P. Mantalos

68'

R. Marin↳ R. Ljubicic

73'

M. Gacinovic← R. Ljubicic

73'

L. Jallow← I. Kosti

73'

T. Filon← G. Kornezos

74'

Joao Mario← P. Mantalos

82'

R. Pereyra← R. Marin

82'

Zini← L. Jovic

83'

João Mário

83'

Guillermo Balzi

85'

N. Eliasson← B. Varga

85'

O. Ozegovic← F. Pedrozo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AEKLevadiakos

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots6

2.58Expected Goals (xG)0.25

3Corners3

20Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots6

5On Target1

5Off Target4

5Blocked1

8Inside Box1

7Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

448Total Passes448

392Accurate Passes381

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-1.67Goals Prevented-1.67

Discipline

20Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1