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AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos — Super League 1 2018

AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Levadiakos
Levadiakos
T. van Weert 84'
N. Amrabat 45+3' (pen)
L. Garcia 37'
2/13/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 22OPAP Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

AEK Athens FC61%
×Draw23%
Levadiakos16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Athens FC
1.74
Levadiakos
0.76

AEK Athens FC creates 129% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

AEK Athens FC
2.02
Levadiakos
0.90

allows per match

AEK Athens FC
0.61
Levadiakos
1.46

finishing

AEK Athens FC+0.58scores more
Levadiakos-0.19scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Athens FC ↓

Levadiakos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AEK Athens FC or draw
84%
AEK Athens FC or Levadiakos
77%
Draw or Levadiakos
39%

Winning margin

AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
35%
Levadiakos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
82%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
52%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
25%
Levadiakos 1+ goals
53%
Levadiakos 2+ goals
18%
Levadiakos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
79%
Levadiakos (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Athens FC at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.61 · 5 matches

Levadiakos away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Athens FC attack 2.02 + Levadiakos defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.74

Levadiakos attack 0.90 + AEK Athens FC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AEK Athens FC scores more
61%
level
23%
Levadiakos scores more
16%

AEK Athens FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. GarciaAEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC · F
7.9

Match Events

36'
Themistoklis Tzimopoulos
37'
L. Garcia
41'
Paulo Vinícius
45+2'
Themistoklis Tzimopoulos
45'
Georgios Vrakas
45+2'
Themistoklis Tzimopoulos
45+3'
N. AmrabatPenalty
46'
A. Dabo← B. Sako
60'
Damian Szymański
65'
M. Gaćinović← N. Amrabat
65'
P. Mantalos← D. Szymański
65'
S. Zuber← S. Araújo
65'
N. Eliasson← O. Pineda
66'
P. Simelidis← A. Mejía
72'
T. van Weert← L. Garcia
80'
P. Liagas← A. Dentakis
84'
T. van Weert↳ N. Eliasson
89'
F. Sachpekidis← S. Hammond
89'
D. Konstantinidis← G. Vrakas
90+4'
Mijat Gaćinović

Possession

76%AEK

Shots

17AEK

Pass accuracy

61%AEK

Statistics

AEKLevadiakos
Overview
76%Possession24%
17Total Shots1
6Corners2
16Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots1
6On Target0
8Off Target1
3Blocked0
13Inside Box0
4Outside Box1
Passing
76%Possession24%
591Total Passes194
503Accurate Passes104
85%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls10
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
5Offsides1

Match Recap: AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos

AEK Athens FC beat Levadiakos 3-0 in Super League 1 on February 13, 2023.

Goals: L. Garcia (37'), N. Amrabat (45+3' pen), T. van Weert (84').

AEK Athens FC controlled possession (76%) and registered 17 shots to 1.

The match was played at OPAP Arena in Athens.