Leningradets 1–1 Tyumen: Result & Stats

Leningradets

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tyumen

S. Nikolaev 7'

A. Bykovskiy 14'

9/20/2025

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 10Petrovsky Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Leningradets38%

×Draw24%

Tyumen37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeningradetsExpected goals in this matchTyumen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.48

Leningradets

1.50

Tyumen

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

1.56

creates per match

1.78

1.19

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Leningradets

1.56

Tyumen

1.78

allows per match

Leningradets

1.19

Tyumen

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par

Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Tyumen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw

63%

Leningradets or Tyumen

76%

Draw or Tyumen

62%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+

18%

Tyumen wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals

78%

Leningradets 2+ goals

44%

Leningradets 3+ goals

19%

Tyumen 1+ goals

77%

Tyumen 2+ goals

43%

Tyumen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)

51%

Tyumen (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Tyumen away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 1.56 + Tyumen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tyumen attack 1.78 + Leningradets defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leningradets scores more

38%

level

24%

Tyumen scores more

37%

Leningradets at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

14'

16'

26'

32'

33'

37'

38'

A. Vyskrebentsev← D. Dushevskiy

52'

M. Bachinskiy

61'

I. Chudin← D. Talikin

76'

E. Sukhanov← I. Shkolik

76'

I. Mokaev← V. Shitov

76'

K. Dudarin← V. Babaev

76'

Y. Frolov← A. Lavrenkov

86'

N. Tereshchuk← M. Bachinskiy

86'

M. Abakumov← A. Bykovskiy

90+2'

S. Nikolaev

Leningradets

Tyumen

66

Yanovich

72

Bem

90

Shakuro

33

▼

Lavrenkov

40

Bezchasny

17

▼

Shitov

13

Petrov

97

▼

Talikin

8

Pyatkin

11

▼

Babaev

19

⚽

▼

1

44

4

2

⚽

Nikolaev

19

Maksetsov

10

Gorelishv

13

▼

Dushevski

20

▼

Shkolik

32

Kulishev

81

Gurenko

77

▼

Bachinski

Manager: Aleksey Baga

38'▲A. Vyskrebentsev←▼D. Dushevskiy

76'▲E. Sukhanov←▼I. Shkolik

86'▲N. Tereshchuk←▼M. Bachinskiy

Leningradets substitutes

75Budachev41Mikushin94Bykovskiy6Vyskrebentsev17Muminov18Sukhanov8Gorulev55Sukhanov91Roshchin66Tereshchuk56Sidelnikov

61'▲I. Chudin←▼D. Talikin

76'▲I. Mokaev←▼V. Shitov

76'▲K. Dudarin←▼V. Babaev

76'▲Y. Frolov←▼A. Lavrenkov

86'▲M. Abakumov←▼A. Bykovskiy

Tyumen substitutes

95Edapin89Lutsev10Mokaev24Grinwald63Dudarin27Chudin47Frolov99Abakumov