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Leningradets vs Tyumen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Leningradets
Leningradets
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tyumen
Tyumen
R. Kazakov 77' (pen)
K. Kolesnichenko 66'
I. Porokhov 21'
2/5/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leningradets41%
×Draw21%
Tyumen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
2.00
Tyumen
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Leningradets
1.40
Tyumen
2.40

allows per match

Leningradets
1.40
Tyumen
2.60

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
62%
Leningradets or Tyumen
79%
Draw or Tyumen
59%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
23%
Tyumen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
86%
Leningradets 2+ goals
59%
Leningradets 3+ goals
32%
Tyumen 1+ goals
85%
Tyumen 2+ goals
56%
Tyumen 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
52%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Tyumen away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 1.40 + Tyumen defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Tyumen attack 2.40 + Leningradets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leningradets scores more
41%
level
21%
Tyumen scores more
38%

Leningradets at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
I. Porokhov
66'
K. Kolesnichenko
77'
R. KazakovPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Leningradets 2–1 Tyumen

Leningradets beat Tyumen 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 5, 2024.

Goals: I. Porokhov (21'), K. Kolesnichenko (66'), R. Kazakov (77' pen).

The match was played at TBC in TBC.