Leningradets 1–0 Tyumen: Result & Stats

Leningradets

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tyumen

E. Sukhanov 15' (pen)

11/25/2023

First League · Round 20Stadion Petrovskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leningradets33%

×Draw29%

Tyumen38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeningradetsExpected goals in this matchTyumen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.16

Leningradets

1.05

Tyumen

1.16

Tyumen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 58 away

0.71

creates per match

0.79

1.53

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Leningradets

0.71

Tyumen

0.79

allows per match

Leningradets

1.53

Tyumen

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par

Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Tyumen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw

62%

Leningradets or Tyumen

71%

Draw or Tyumen

67%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+

13%

Tyumen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals

65%

Leningradets 2+ goals

28%

Leningradets 3+ goals

9%

Tyumen 1+ goals

69%

Tyumen 2+ goals

32%

Tyumen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)

46%

Tyumen (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.71 + Tyumen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Tyumen attack 0.79 + Leningradets defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leningradets scores more

33%

level

29%

Tyumen scores more

38%

Tyumen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

E. SukhanovPenalty

24'

Aleksandr Bem

46'

S. Iljin← N. Rozmanov

46'

N. Kasatkin← E. Tatarinov

55'

M. Gorelishvili← E. Sukhanov

60'

P. Shadrin← I. Druzhinin

67'

Nikita Pechenkin

73'

A. Chukanov← N. Kasatkin

73'

A. Kobyalko← I. Porokhov

79'

R. Kazakov← V. Zhironkin

88'

K. Kolesnichenko← M. Bachinskiy

90+1'

Nikita Karabashev

90+1'

Nikita Balakhontsev

Statistics

LeningradetsTyumen

Discipline

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0