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Leningradets vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2024

Leningradets
Leningradets
Preview
15:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
5/1/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Petrovsky Stadium
48%
Shinnik Yaroslavl
model favours
25%27%48%

Leningradets score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leningradets25%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
0.91
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.39

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 41 away

creates per match

Leningradets
0.60
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.78

allows per match

Leningradets
2.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.22

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
52%
Leningradets or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
75%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
8%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
60%
Leningradets 2+ goals
23%
Leningradets 3+ goals
6%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
75%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
40%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
34%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 0.60 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.91

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.78 + Leningradets defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leningradets scores more
25%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
48%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shinnik Yaroslavl have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Leningradets’s matches
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Leningradets
LLLDW
Yaroslavl
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Leningradets face Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League)

First League returns with Leningradets hosting Shinnik Yaroslavl. Match starts May 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Leningradets host Shinnik Yaroslavl at Petrovsky Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.