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Leixoes vs Farense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Leixoes
Leixoes
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Farense
Farense
11/9/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Leixoes37%
×Draw22%
Farense41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leixoes
1.73
Farense
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Leixoes
2.38
Farense
2.21

allows per match

Leixoes
1.50
Farense
1.07

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par
Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

Farense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw
59%
Leixoes or Farense
78%
Draw or Farense
63%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+
19%
Farense wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals
82%
Leixoes 2+ goals
52%
Leixoes 3+ goals
25%
Farense 1+ goals
84%
Farense 2+ goals
55%
Farense 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)
47%
Farense (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Farense away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 2.38 + Farense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.73

Farense attack 2.21 + Leixoes defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leixoes scores more
37%
level
22%
Farense scores more
41%

Farense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leixoes vs Farense

Leixoes beat Farense 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Mar in Matosinhos.