Farense 1–0 Leixoes: Result & Stats | Segunda Liga

Farense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leixoes

Rui Costa 65'

3/5/2023

Segunda Liga · Round 23Estádio de São Lúis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Farense45%

×Draw28%

Leixoes27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FarenseExpected goals in this matchLeixoes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.97

Farense

1.35

Leixoes

0.97

Farense creates 39% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 134 away

1.42

creates per match

1.02

0.91

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Farense

1.42

Leixoes

1.02

allows per match

Farense

0.91

Leixoes

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farense+0.00on par

Leixoes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Leixoes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Farense or draw

73%

Farense or Leixoes

72%

Draw or Leixoes

55%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+

21%

Leixoes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals

74%

Farense 2+ goals

39%

Farense 3+ goals

15%

Leixoes 1+ goals

62%

Leixoes 2+ goals

25%

Leixoes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)

63%

Leixoes (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.91 · 81 matches

Leixoes away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.28 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.42 + Leixoes defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Leixoes attack 1.02 + Farense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Farense scores more

45%

level

28%

Leixoes scores more

27%

Farense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

30'

45+1'

55'

57'

Rui Costa← Vítor Gonçalves

58'

Elves← Cristian Ponde

59'

J. Oliveira← Agostinho Magalhães

59'

Ricardo Valente← Tiago Morais

62'

Nemanja Ćalasan

64'

Brunão← Rafael Freitas

65'

Rui Costa

68'

Coronas← Joel

68'

Miguel Silva← João Amorim

69'

Z. Muscat← Róbson

74'

Pastor

75'

Fabinho

78'

A. Sapara← Marco Matias

78'

Lucão← Pedro Henrique

79'

85'

89'

89'

90+5'

90'

Shots

Statistics

FarenseLeixoes

Overview

6Total Shots7

6Corners8

16Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots7

1On Target1

4Off Target6

Discipline

16Fouls11

8Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards2

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Farense vs Leixoes

Farense beat Leixoes 1-0 in Segunda Liga on March 5, 2023.

Goals: Rui Costa (65').

The match was played at Estádio de São Lúis in Faro.

Farense vs Leixoes — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Farense vs Leixoes