Leixoes 0–1 Farense: Result & Stats | Segunda Liga

Leixoes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Farense

Lucão 82'

9/11/2022

Segunda Liga · Round 6Estádio do Mar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Leixoes37%

×Draw28%

Farense35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeixoesExpected goals in this matchFarense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.13

Leixoes

1.17

Farense

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 81 away

1.16

creates per match

1.09

1.17

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Leixoes

1.16

Farense

1.09

allows per match

Leixoes

1.17

Farense

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leixoes+0.00on par

Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leixoes ↓

Farense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leixoes or draw

65%

Leixoes or Farense

72%

Draw or Farense

63%

Winning margin

Leixoes wins by 2+

15%

Farense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leixoes 1+ goals

69%

Leixoes 2+ goals

33%

Leixoes 3+ goals

11%

Farense 1+ goals

68%

Farense 2+ goals

31%

Farense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leixoes (draw refunded)

51%

Farense (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leixoes at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Farense away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leixoes attack 1.16 + Farense defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Farense attack 1.09 + Leixoes defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Leixoes scores more

37%

level

28%

Farense scores more

35%

Leixoes at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leixoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

37'

43'

47'

52'

Marcos Paulo← Cláudio Falcão

52'

Abner← Miguel Bandarra

54'

João Oliveira

61'

João Amorim

61'

J. Velásquez← Rui Costa

61'

Vítor Gonçalves← Fabrício Isidoro

67'

Tiago Morais← J. Oliveira

74'

H. Zagbayou← Fabinho

74'

Rúben Araújo← Zé Eduardo

78'

Lucão← Pedro Henrique

81'

Moisés Conceição← Thalis

81'

Paulinho← Kiki Silva

82'

Lucão

90+7'

Vítor Gonçalves

Leixoes4-3-3

Farense4-4-2

96

▼

Henrique

19

▼

Costa

20

Ponde

29

▼

Falcão

14

▼

7

31

6

2

17

▼

33

24

29

4

97

61

30

▼

Thalis

21

Traoré

27

▼

Fabinho

23

▼

Silva

9

▼

Eduardo

37

▼

Oliveira

Manager: Vitor Martins

67'▲Tiago Morais←▼J. Oliveira

74'▲H. Zagbayou←▼Fabinho

74'▲Rúben Araújo←▼Zé Eduardo

81'▲Moisés Conceição←▼Thalis

81'▲Paulinho←▼Kiki Silva

Leixoes substitutes

28Morais6Zagbayou19Araújo7Conceição11Paulinho13Coronas18Silva51Stefanović66Meira

Manager: Vasco Faísca

52'▲Marcos Paulo←▼Cláudio Falcão

52'▲Abner←▼Miguel Bandarra

61'▲J. Velásquez←▼Rui Costa

61'▲Vítor Gonçalves←▼Fabrício Isidoro

78'▲Lucão←▼Pedro Henrique

Farense substitutes

8Paulo30Abner10Velásquez80Gonçalves9Lucão1Defendi11Elves35Harramiz37Silva

Match Recap: Leixoes vs Farense

Farense beat Leixoes 1-0 in Segunda Liga on September 11, 2022.

Goals: Lucão (82').

The match was played at Estádio do Mar in Matosinhos.

Leixoes vs Farense — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Leixoes vs Farense