Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leiknir R. vs Fjolnir — League #814 2026

Leiknir R.
Leiknir R.
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
Unknown 58', 33', 3'
Unknown 79', 54', 53', 46'
1/14/2026League #814League #814 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leiknir R.51%
×Draw18%
Fjolnir31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leiknir R.
3.17
Fjolnir
2.50

Leiknir R. creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Leiknir R.
3.33
Fjolnir
2.67

allows per match

Leiknir R.
2.33
Fjolnir
3.00

finishing

Leiknir R.+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir R. ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Leiknir R. or draw
69%
Leiknir R. or Fjolnir
82%
Draw or Fjolnir
49%

Winning margin

Leiknir R. wins by 2+
33%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Leiknir R. 1+ goals
96%
Leiknir R. 2+ goals
82%
Leiknir R. 3+ goals
60%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
92%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
71%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Leiknir R. (draw refunded)
62%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir R. at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 2.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir R. attack 3.33 + Fjolnir defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Fjolnir attack 2.67 + Leiknir R. defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leiknir R. scores more
51%
level
18%
Fjolnir scores more
31%

Leiknir R. at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leiknir R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
33'
46'
53'
54'
58'
79'
Leiknir
Fjolnir
O. Kristjánsson
Manager: O. Kristjánsson
Ú. Jökulsson
Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

Match Recap: Leiknir R. vs Fjolnir

Fjolnir beat Leiknir R. 4-3 in League #814 on January 14, 2026.

Goals: ? (3', 33', 46', 53', 54', 58', 79').