Leiknir R. 0–1 Fjolnir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Leiknir R.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fjolnir

B. T. Hafstein 10'

7/4/2025

1. Deild · Round 11Leiknisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Leiknir R.33%

×Draw23%

Fjolnir44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leiknir R.Expected goals in this matchFjolnir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.73

Leiknir R.

1.48

Fjolnir

1.73

Fjolnir creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

1.24

creates per match

1.94

1.52

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Leiknir R.

1.24

Fjolnir

1.94

allows per match

Leiknir R.

1.52

Fjolnir

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leiknir R.+0.00on par

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leiknir R. ↓

Fjolnir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Leiknir R. or draw

56%

Leiknir R. or Fjolnir

77%

Draw or Fjolnir

67%

Winning margin

Leiknir R. wins by 2+

15%

Fjolnir wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Leiknir R. 1+ goals

77%

Leiknir R. 2+ goals

43%

Leiknir R. 3+ goals

19%

Fjolnir 1+ goals

82%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

52%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Leiknir R. (draw refunded)

43%

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leiknir R. at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leiknir R. attack 1.24 + Fjolnir defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fjolnir attack 1.94 + Leiknir R. defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leiknir R. scores more

33%

level

23%

Fjolnir scores more

44%

Fjolnir at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. T. Hafstein

26'

J. Sigurdsson

28'

K. Arnarsson← K. Arnarsson

46'

A. Kjartansson← A. Kjartansson

46'

K. S. Hlifarsson← K. S. Hlifarsson

49'

S. Sigmarsson

51'

D. Ingvarsson

52'

J. Sigurdsson

52'

J. Sigurdsson

62'

D. Jonsson

77'

E. Vilhjalmsson← E. Vilhjalmsson

79'

O. Jonasson

82'

G. Agustsson← G. Agustsson

82'

J. Tjorvason← D. Jonsson

86'

B. Gudjonsson

89'

S. Hardarson

90+1'

D. Ingvarsson← D. Ingvarsson

90+1'

B. T. Hafstein← B. T. Hafstein

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff