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Fjolnir vs Leiknir R. — 1. Deild 2026

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Leiknir R.
Leiknir R.
A. Sigursteinsson 87'
A. Einarsson 90+4'
K. S. Hlifarsson 52'
9/13/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 22Egilshöll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fjolnir40%
×Draw22%
Leiknir R.38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
1.81
Leiknir R.
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
1.71
Leiknir R.
1.30

allows per match

Fjolnir
2.24
Leiknir R.
1.91

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
Leiknir R.+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Leiknir R. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
62%
Fjolnir or Leiknir R.
78%
Draw or Leiknir R.
60%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
21%
Leiknir R. wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
84%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
54%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
27%
Leiknir R. 1+ goals
83%
Leiknir R. 2+ goals
53%
Leiknir R. 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
51%
Leiknir R. (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Leiknir R. away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.71 + Leiknir R. defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.81

Leiknir R. attack 1.30 + Fjolnir defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fjolnir scores more
40%
level
22%
Leiknir R. scores more
38%

Fjolnir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+4'
A. Arnarson
46'
L. Norby← E. O. Hardarson
46'
A. Arnason← A. Arnason
52'
K. S. Hlifarsson
52'
O. Jonasson← O. Jonasson
64'
A. Brynjarsson← T. Jonsson
68'
A. Sigursteinsson
70'
E. Vilhjalmsson← E. Vilhjalmsson
83'
B. Johannsson← M. Jorgensson
87'
A. Sigursteinsson
88'
D. Gunnarsson← D. Gunnarsson
90'
D. Brkovic← S. Bjornsson
90'
A. Hardarson← A. Hardarson
90+4'
A. Einarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Fjolnir 1–2 Leiknir R.

Leiknir R. beat Fjolnir 2-1 in 1. Deild on September 13, 2025.

Goals: K. S. Hlifarsson (52'), A. Sigursteinsson (87'), A. Einarsson (90+4').

The match was played at Egilshöll in Reykjavík.