Leicester 0–2 West Ham: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

West Ham

M. Noble 64'

João Mário 34'

5/5/2018

Premier League · Round 37King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leicester46%

×Draw25%

West Ham29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.18

Leicester

1.54

West Ham

1.18

Leicester creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 35 away

1.23

creates per match

1.06

1.30

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Leicester

1.23

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Leicester

1.30

West Ham

1.85

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Leicester+0.10scores more

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

71%

Leicester or West Ham

75%

Draw or West Ham

54%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

23%

West Ham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

79%

Leicester 2+ goals

45%

Leicester 3+ goals

20%

West Ham 1+ goals

69%

West Ham 2+ goals

33%

West Ham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

61%

West Ham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.23 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

West Ham attack 1.06 + Leicester defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leicester scores more

46%

level

25%

West Ham scores more

29%

Leicester at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Arnautović

West Ham · F

7.8

Match Events

34'

João Mário↳ M. Arnautović

41'

46'

49'

61'

61'

K. Iheanacho← H. Choudhury

64'

Aleksandar Dragović

64'

M. Noble

75'

A. Carroll← M. Lanzini

79'

E. Fernandes← M. Arnautović

90+3'

P. Evra← A. Masuaku

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterWest

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots13

8Corners3

8Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots13

2On Target3

4Off Target3

7Blocked7

6Inside Box11

7Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

417Total Passes363

328Accurate Passes269

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2