Leicester 2–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

4/20/2024

Championship · Round 44King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Leicester38%

×Draw28%

West Brom34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

Leicester

1.25

West Brom

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 40 away

1.28

creates per match

1.19

1.15

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Leicester

1.28

West Brom

1.19

allows per match

Leicester

1.15

West Brom

1.21

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Leicester+0.46scores more

West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

66%

Leicester or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

62%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

West Brom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

71%

Leicester 2+ goals

36%

Leicester 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

69%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

53%

West Brom (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.15 · 19 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.28 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

West Brom attack 1.19 + Leicester defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leicester scores more

38%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

34%

Leicester at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff