Leicester 1–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

West Brom

R. Mahrez 80'

N. Chadli 63'

10/16/2017

Premier League · Round 8King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Leicester49%

×Draw26%

West Brom25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.01

Leicester

1.53

West Brom

1.01

Leicester creates 51% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 94 away

1.55

creates per match

0.84

1.19

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Leicester

1.55

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Leicester

1.19

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

75%

Leicester or West Brom

74%

Draw or West Brom

51%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

25%

West Brom wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

78%

Leicester 2+ goals

45%

Leicester 3+ goals

20%

West Brom 1+ goals

64%

West Brom 2+ goals

27%

West Brom 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

66%

West Brom (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.19 · 170 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.55 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

West Brom attack 0.84 + Leicester defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leicester scores more

49%

level

26%

West Brom scores more

25%

Leicester at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

C. Fuchs

Leicester · D

7.6

Match Events

8'

47'

62'

63'

68'

74'

B. Chilwell← D. Simpson

74'

I. Slimani← K. Iheanacho

80'

R. Mahrez↳ I. Slimani

84'

J. McClean← J. Rodriguez

84'

G. McAuley← N. Chadli

90+4'

A. King← Iborra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterWest

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots5

4Corners1

13Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots5

3On Target1

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

8Inside Box1

3Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

486Total Passes378

367Accurate Passes271

76%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1