Leicester 2–1 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Manchester City

Ricardo Pereira 81'

M. Albrighton 19'

Bernardo Silva 14'

12/26/2018

Premier League · Round 19King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Leicester31%

×Draw25%

Manchester City44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.58

Leicester

1.29

Manchester City

1.58

Manchester City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 34 away

1.38

creates per match

1.79

1.38

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Leicester

1.38

Manchester City

1.79

allows per match

Leicester

1.38

Manchester City

1.21

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.12scores more

Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

56%

Leicester or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

69%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

13%

Manchester City wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

37%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Manchester City 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City 2+ goals

47%

Manchester City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

41%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.38 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Manchester City attack 1.79 + Leicester defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leicester scores more

31%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

44%

Manchester City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Albrighton

Leicester · F

7.8

Match Events

14'

Bernardo Silva↳ S. Agüero

19'

M. Albrighton↳ J. Vardy

58'

Harry Maguire

63'

D. Gray← H. Choudhury

70'

David Silva← K. De Bruyne

77'

John Stones

78'

D. Simpson← J. Maddison

81'

Ricardo Pereira

83'

R. Mahrez← Bernardo Silva

87'

88'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterManchester

Overview

33%Possession67%

10Total Shots11

3Corners7

5Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots11

5On Target4

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

8Inside Box6

2Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

320Total Passes613

228Accurate Passes532

71%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3