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Leicester vs Hull City — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
3/14/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Leicester58%
×Draw24%
Hull City18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.73
Hull City
0.85

Leicester creates 104% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 38 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.56
Hull City
0.53

allows per match

Leicester
1.18
Hull City
1.89

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
82%
Leicester or Hull City
76%
Draw or Hull City
42%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
33%
Hull City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
82%
Leicester 2+ goals
52%
Leicester 3+ goals
25%
Hull City 1+ goals
57%
Hull City 2+ goals
21%
Hull City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
76%
Hull City (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 169 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.56 + Hull City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hull City attack 0.53 + Leicester defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Leicester scores more
58%
level
24%
Hull City scores more
18%

Leicester at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Tom Huddlestone
45'
Andrew Robertson
61'
L. Ulloa← A. Kramarić
66'
Michael Dawson
68'
Alex Bruce
72'
Tom Huddlestone
72'
Tom Huddlestone
76'
T. Lawrence← R. De Laet
78'
S. Quinn← N. Jelavić
79'
D. Meyler← A. Robertson
84'
D. Nugent← W. Morgan
85'
Dame N'Doye
85'
A. Hernández← G. Ramírez

Possession

61%Leicester

Statistics

LeicesterHull
Overview
61%Possession39%
7Corners5
8Fouls15
Shots
5On Target3
7Off Target3
Passing
61%Possession39%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls15
0Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1

Premier League: Leicester 0–0 Hull City

Leicester and Hull City drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 14, 2015.

Leicester dominated possession with 61% of the ball.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester.