Hull City 2–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Leicester

J. Gelhardt 31'

L. Millar 6'

A. Ramsey 67'

10/21/2025

Championship · Round 11MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Hull City35%

×Draw25%

Leicester39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.44

Hull City

1.35

Leicester

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

1.34

creates per match

1.43

1.45

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Hull City

1.34

Leicester

1.43

allows per match

Hull City

1.45

Leicester

1.37

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Hull City-0.05on par

Leicester-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

61%

Hull City or Leicester

75%

Draw or Leicester

65%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

16%

Leicester wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

74%

Hull City 2+ goals

39%

Hull City 3+ goals

15%

Leicester 1+ goals

76%

Leicester 2+ goals

42%

Leicester 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

47%

Leicester (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.45 · 17 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.34 + Leicester defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Leicester attack 1.43 + Hull City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hull City scores more

35%

level

25%

Leicester scores more

39%

Leicester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Millar

Hull City · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Hamza Choudhury

6'

L. Millar↳ J. Gelhardt

31'

J. Gelhardt↳ R. Giles

46'

J. Monga← P. Daka

46'

52'

59'

67'

73'

73'

D. Gyabi← A. Hadziahmetovic

73'

E. Destan← K. Joseph

77'

C. Okoli← L. Thomas

77'

J. Carranza← H. Choudhury

85'

J. Egan← R. Slater

85'

J. Ndala← J. Gelhardt

88'

V. Kristiansen← W. Faes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullLeicester

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots18

1.52Expected Goals (xG)1.48

1Corners7

8Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots18

6On Target4

2Off Target10

1Blocked4

7Inside Box12

2Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

333Total Passes568

247Accurate Passes490

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

1.36Goals Prevented1.36

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

Championship: Hull City 2–1 Leicester

Hull City beat Leicester 2-1 in Championship on October 21, 2025.

Goals: L. Millar (6'), J. Gelhardt (31'), A. Ramsey (67').

Leicester controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.

Hull City vs Leicester — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Hull City 2–1 Leicester