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Hull City vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Leicester
Leicester
R. Snodgrass 57'
A. Diomande 45+1'
R. Mahrez 47' (pen)
8/13/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hull City36%
×Draw24%
Leicester40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.44
Leicester
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 170 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.26
Leicester
1.45

allows per match

Hull City
1.64
Leicester
1.61

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
60%
Hull City or Leicester
76%
Draw or Leicester
64%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
17%
Leicester wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
76%
Hull City 2+ goals
42%
Hull City 3+ goals
18%
Leicester 1+ goals
79%
Leicester 2+ goals
45%
Leicester 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
47%
Leicester (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.44

Leicester attack 1.45 + Hull City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more
36%
level
24%
Leicester scores more
40%

Leicester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
R. SnodgrassHull CityHull City · F
8.1

Match Events

29'
Christian Fuchs
33'
Danny Simpson
45+1'
A. Diomande↳ A. Hernández
47'
R. MahrezPenalty
57'
R. Snodgrass
68'
S. Okazaki← D. Gray
68'
D. Amartey← A. King
71'
Curtis Davies
83'
Sam Clucas
83'
L. Ulloa← D. Simpson

Possession

49%Hull

Shots

14Hull

Pass accuracy

49%Hull

Statistics

HullLeicester
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots18
5Corners3
8Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots18
5On Target5
7Off Target9
2Blocked4
7Inside Box9
7Outside Box9
Passing
49%Possession51%
449Total Passes453
343Accurate Passes352
76%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls17
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Premier League: Hull City 2–1 Leicester

Hull City beat Leicester 2-1 in Premier League on August 13, 2016.

Goals: A. Diomande (45+1'), R. Mahrez (47' pen), R. Snodgrass (57').

Leicester controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.