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Leicester vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
P. Billing 40'
4/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Leicester42%
×Draw24%
Bournemouth34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.63
Bournemouth
1.46

Leicester creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 29 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.38
Bournemouth
1.53

allows per match

Leicester
1.38
Bournemouth
1.88

finishing

Leicester+0.12scores more
Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
66%
Leicester or Bournemouth
76%
Draw or Bournemouth
58%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
21%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
80%
Leicester 2+ goals
48%
Leicester 3+ goals
22%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
77%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
43%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
55%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.38 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Leicester defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leicester scores more
42%
level
24%
Bournemouth scores more
34%

Leicester at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
P. BillingBournemouthBournemouth · M
8.3

Match Events

33'
Joe Rothwell
38'
M. Tavernier← D. Ouattara
40'
P. Billing
58'
K. Ịheanachọ← Ricardo Pereira
58'
P. Daka← J. Vardy
60'
L. Cook← J. Rothwell
72'
Tetê← H. Barnes
80'
Adam Smith
80'
Lloyd Kelly
81'
D. Praet← W. Ndidi
88'
A. Semenyo← D. Solanke

Possession

51%Leicester

Shots

14Leicester

Pass accuracy

49%Leicester

Statistics

LeicesterBournemouth
Overview
51%Possession49%
14Total Shots19
0.69Expected Goals (xG)2.15
6Corners6
10Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots19
4On Target7
8Off Target2
2Blocked10
10Inside Box13
4Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
423Total Passes417
319Accurate Passes328
75%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Leicester vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Leicester 1-0 in Premier League on April 8, 2023.

Goals: P. Billing (40').

Leicester controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 19.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.