Bournemouth 2–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester

R. Christie 71'

P. Billing 68'

P. Daka 10'

10/8/2022

Premier League · Round 10Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Bournemouth49%

×Draw22%

Leicester28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.42

Bournemouth

1.93

Leicester

1.42

Bournemouth creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 8 away

1.65

creates per match

1.73

1.11

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.65

Leicester

1.73

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.11

Leicester

2.21

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Bournemouth-0.27scores less

Leicester-0.35scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

72%

Bournemouth or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

51%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

28%

Leicester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

85%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

57%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

30%

Leicester 1+ goals

76%

Leicester 2+ goals

41%

Leicester 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

63%

Leicester (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.21 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.65 + Leicester defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.93

Leicester attack 1.73 + Bournemouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bournemouth scores more

49%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

28%

Bournemouth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

W. Faes

Leicester · D

7.6

Match Events

10'

P. Daka

11'

Patson DakaGoal confirmed

40'

Ryan Fredericks

59'

Boubakary Soumaré

67'

J. Vardy← P. Daka

67'

D. Amartey← T. Castagne

68'

P. Billing

71'

R. Christie↳ D. Solanke

72'

J. Stacey← R. Fredericks

77'

J. Anthony← P. Billing

79'

K. Ịheanachọ← B. Soumaré

86'

Ayoze Pérez← J. Justin

88'

James Maddison

90+2'

K. Moore← D. Solanke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthLeicester

Overview

44%Possession56%

10Total Shots9

7Corners2

8Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots9

4On Target5

2Off Target2

4Blocked2

8Inside Box8

2Outside Box1

Passing

44%Possession56%

424Total Passes551

359Accurate Passes475

85%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Bournemouth vs Leicester

Bournemouth beat Leicester 2-1 in Premier League on October 8, 2022.

Goals: P. Daka (10'), P. Billing (68'), R. Christie (71').

Leicester controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, Dorset.

Bournemouth vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bournemouth vs Leicester