Leicester 3–1 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Bournemouth

J. Vardy 73', 12'

Y. Tielemans 41'

C. Wilson 15'

8/31/2019

Premier League · Round 4King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leicester41%

×Draw24%

Bournemouth35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.42

Leicester

1.55

Bournemouth

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 29 away

1.23

creates per match

1.53

1.30

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Leicester

1.23

Bournemouth

1.53

allows per match

Leicester

1.30

Bournemouth

1.88

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.10scores more

Bournemouth-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

65%

Leicester or Bournemouth

76%

Draw or Bournemouth

59%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

20%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

79%

Leicester 2+ goals

46%

Leicester 3+ goals

20%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

76%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

41%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

54%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.88 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.23 + Bournemouth defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Bournemouth attack 1.53 + Leicester defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leicester scores more

41%

level

24%

Bournemouth scores more

35%

Leicester at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Vardy

Leicester · F

8.9

Match Events

12'

J. Vardy↳ B. Chilwell

15'

21'

32'

40'

41'

Y. Tielemans↳ J. Vardy

64'

D. Gray← M. Albrighton

64'

D. Solanke← H. Wilson

64'

J. Ibe← A. Smith

69'

Callum Wilson

71'

H. Choudhury← H. Barnes

73'

J. Vardy↳ Y. Tielemans

79'

A. Surman← J. King

86'

C. Fuchs← J. Maddison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterBournemouth

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots8

4Corners5

9Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots8

6On Target2

5Off Target2

4Blocked4

7Inside Box3

8Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

541Total Passes432

435Accurate Passes334

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1