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Leeds vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Manchester City
Manchester City
Rodrigo 59'
R. Sterling 17'
10/3/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Leeds35%
×Draw25%
Manchester City41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.40
Manchester City
1.54

Manchester City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.59
Manchester City
1.76

allows per match

Leeds
1.31
Manchester City
1.21

finishing

Leeds-0.13scores less
Manchester City-0.21scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Manchester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
59%
Leeds or Manchester City
75%
Draw or Manchester City
65%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
16%
Manchester City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
75%
Leeds 2+ goals
41%
Leeds 3+ goals
17%
Manchester City 1+ goals
79%
Manchester City 2+ goals
45%
Manchester City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
46%
Manchester City (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.59 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Manchester City attack 1.76 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leeds scores more
35%
level
25%
Manchester City scores more
41%

Manchester City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
R. SterlingManchester CityManchester City · F
7.9

Match Events

12'
Patrick Bamford
17'
R. Sterling↳ Ferran Torres
36'
Benjamin Mendy
46'
I. Poveda-Ocampo← E. Alioski
56'
Rodrigo← T. Roberts
59'
Rodrigo
65'
Bernardo Silva← Ferran Torres
71'
N. Aké← B. Mendy
77'
L. Davis← M. Klich
77'
Fernandinho← R. Mahrez
90'
Stuart Dallas

Possession

52%Leeds

Shots

12Leeds

Pass accuracy

50%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsManchester
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots23
7Corners10
11Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots23
7On Target2
2Off Target14
3Blocked7
11Inside Box16
1Outside Box7
Passing
52%Possession48%
429Total Passes389
356Accurate Passes319
83%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Premier League: Leeds 1–1 Manchester City

Leeds and Manchester City drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 3, 2020.

Goals: R. Sterling (17'), Rodrigo (59').

Leeds controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 23.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.