Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Leeds vs Everton — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Everton
Everton
L. Nmecha 84' (pen)
8/18/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Leeds47%
×Draw24%
Everton28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.66
Everton
1.23

Leeds creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.57
Everton
1.15

allows per match

Leeds
1.31
Everton
1.75

finishing

Leeds-0.15scores less
Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Everton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
72%
Leeds or Everton
76%
Draw or Everton
53%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
25%
Everton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
81%
Leeds 2+ goals
49%
Leeds 3+ goals
23%
Everton 1+ goals
71%
Everton 2+ goals
35%
Everton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
63%
Everton (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.75 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.57 + Everton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Everton attack 1.15 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Leeds scores more
47%
level
24%
Everton scores more
28%

Leeds at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
Tim Iroegbunam
63'
Carlos Alcaraz
67'
B. Aaronson← W. Gnonto
71'
J. Grealish← T. Iroegbunam
78'
L. Nmecha← J. Piroe
78'
J. Harrison← D. James
78'
I. Gruev← E. Ampadu
84'
L. NmechaPenalty
86'
T. Barry← C. Alcaraz
90+4'
S. Longstaff← A. Tanaka

Possession

54%Leeds

Shots

21Leeds

Pass accuracy

51%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsEverton
Overview
54%Possession46%
21Total Shots7
2.13Expected Goals (xG)0.80
7Corners2
6Fouls8
Shots
21Total Shots7
3On Target1
7Off Target3
11Blocked3
12Inside Box5
9Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
481Total Passes411
401Accurate Passes324
83%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
0.07Goals Prevented0.07
Discipline
6Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Leeds vs Everton

Leeds beat Everton 1-0 in Premier League on August 18, 2025.

Goals: L. Nmecha (84' pen).

Leeds controlled possession (54%) and registered 21 shots to 7.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds.