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Everton vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Everton
Everton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Leeds
Leeds
T. Barry 76'
J. Justin 28'
1/26/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Hill Dickinson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Everton45%
×Draw25%
Leeds30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton
1.56
Leeds
1.23

Everton creates 27% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

creates per match

Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.15

allows per match

Everton
1.31
Leeds
1.83

finishing

Everton-0.13scores less
Leeds-0.15scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Everton or draw
70%
Everton or Leeds
75%
Draw or Leeds
55%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+
23%
Leeds wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals
79%
Everton 2+ goals
46%
Everton 3+ goals
21%
Leeds 1+ goals
71%
Leeds 2+ goals
35%
Leeds 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)
60%
Leeds (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 25 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.83 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Leeds defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Leeds attack 1.15 + Everton defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Everton scores more
45%
level
25%
Leeds scores more
30%

Everton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
J. Justin↳ A. Stach
46'
K. Dewsbury-Hall← D. McNeil
46'
J. Branthwaite← H. Armstrong
54'
Anton Stach
56'
Ilia Gruev
66'
A. Tanaka← I. Gruev
71'
T. Dibling← N. Patterson
76'
T. Barry↳ I. Gueye
85'
N. Okafor← B. Aaronson
85'
S. Longstaff← A. Stach
85'
F. Buonanotte← S. Bornauw
89'
Beto← T. Barry
90'
Facundo Buonanotte

Possession

58%Everton

Shots

10Everton

Pass accuracy

52%Everton

Statistics

EvertonLeeds
Overview
58%Possession42%
10Total Shots14
0.70Expected Goals (xG)1.38
4Corners4
9Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots14
3On Target4
3Off Target7
4Blocked3
6Inside Box10
4Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
542Total Passes394
450Accurate Passes304
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
-0.00Goals Prevented-0.00
Discipline
9Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Everton vs Leeds

Everton and Leeds drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 26, 2026.

Goals: J. Justin (28'), T. Barry (76').

Everton controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool.