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Everton vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Everton
Everton
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
A. Gordon 78'
M. Keane 23'
S. Coleman 10'
2/12/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Goodison Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Everton45%
×Draw25%
Leeds30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Everton
1.56
Leeds
1.21

Everton creates 29% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

creates per match

Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.15

allows per match

Everton
1.28
Leeds
1.83

finishing

Everton-0.03on par
Leeds-0.15scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Everton ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Everton or draw
70%
Everton or Leeds
75%
Draw or Leeds
55%

Winning margin

Everton wins by 2+
23%
Leeds wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Everton 1+ goals
79%
Everton 2+ goals
46%
Everton 3+ goals
21%
Leeds 1+ goals
70%
Leeds 2+ goals
34%
Leeds 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Everton (draw refunded)
61%
Leeds (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Everton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.83 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Everton attack 1.29 + Leeds defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Leeds attack 1.15 + Everton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Everton scores more
45%
level
25%
Leeds scores more
30%

Everton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
A. GordonEvertonEverton · M
8.9

Match Events

9'
L. Hjelde← S. Dallas
10'
S. Coleman
23'
M. Keane↳ A. Gordon
29'
Daniel James
46'
T. Roberts← Raphinha
46'
A. Forshaw← M. Klich
72'
D. Alli← D. Calvert-Lewin
74'
Alex Iwobi
78'
A. Gordon↳ Richarlison
81'
A. El Ghazi← A. Gordon
86'
S. Rondón← Richarlison

Possession

42%Everton

Shots

21Everton

Pass accuracy

48%Everton

Statistics

EvertonLeeds
Overview
42%Possession58%
21Total Shots7
5Corners3
8Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots7
10On Target0
2Off Target4
9Blocked3
11Inside Box2
10Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
344Total Passes467
255Accurate Passes374
74%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Everton 3 – 0 Leeds

Everton beat Leeds 3-0 in Premier League on February 12, 2022.

Goals: S. Coleman (10'), M. Keane (23'), A. Gordon (78').

Leeds controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 21.

The match was played at Goodison Park in Liverpool.