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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Carina Gubin — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
7/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra51%
×Draw21%
Carina Gubin28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
2.20
Carina Gubin
1.60

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.80
Carina Gubin
1.40

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.80
Carina Gubin
2.60

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Carina Gubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
72%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Carina Gubin
79%
Draw or Carina Gubin
49%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
31%
Carina Gubin wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
89%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
64%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
37%
Carina Gubin 1+ goals
80%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
47%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
64%
Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.80 + Carina Gubin defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Carina Gubin attack 1.40 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
51%
level
21%
Carina Gubin scores more
28%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Lechia
Carina
S. Mordal
Manager: S. Mordal
G. Kopernicki
Manager: G. Kopernicki

Match Recap: Lechia Zielona Góra vs Carina Gubin

Carina Gubin beat Lechia Zielona Góra 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 15, 2026.