Carina Gubin 2–1 Lechia Zielona Góra

Carina Gubin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lechia Zielona Góra

P. Haraszkiewicz 17'

K. Staszkowian 8'

M. Szmigiel 67'

9/13/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 8Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Carina Gubin32%

×Draw25%

Lechia Zielona Góra42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carina GubinExpected goals in this matchLechia Zielona Góra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.48

Carina Gubin

1.26

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.48

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 17% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.52

creates per match

1.71

1.24

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Carina Gubin

1.52

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.71

allows per match

Carina Gubin

1.24

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw

58%

Carina Gubin or Lechia Zielona Góra

75%

Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra

68%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+

14%

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals

72%

Carina Gubin 2+ goals

36%

Carina Gubin 3+ goals

13%

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

77%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

43%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)

43%

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.52 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.71 + Carina Gubin defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carina Gubin scores more

32%

level

25%

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

42%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

K. Staszkowian

17'

P. Haraszkiewicz

67'

M. Szmigiel

Carina

Lechia

Manager: G. Kopernicki

Manager: S. Mordal